Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-03 2.123938 2.251379 2.385674 2.538283 2.707573 2.890395 3.103824
2025-08-10 1.923488 2.097358 2.289493 2.519486 2.789932 3.101239 3.491800
2025-08-17 1.787877 1.986135 2.212303 2.492960 2.837093 3.252595 3.804206
2025-08-24 1.684172 1.897522 2.146916 2.465272 2.869047 3.376351 4.083661
2025-08-31 1.614640 1.841599 2.112634 2.467471 2.931650 3.537087 4.422509
2025-09-07 1.562217 1.801325 2.092395 2.482363 3.007429 3.717280 4.805731
2025-09-14 1.494581 1.737441 2.037383 2.446395 3.009623 3.793137 5.042229
2025-09-21 1.433744 1.678474 1.984536 2.408416 3.003927 3.854137 5.259703
2025-09-28 1.375958 1.620407 1.929383 2.363025 2.982938 3.888525 5.435711
2025-10-05 1.355405 1.608960 1.934074 2.398717 3.079146 4.105858 5.945873
2025-10-12 1.337522 1.599770 1.940667 2.436490 3.179990 4.339034 6.522222
2025-10-19 1.319608 1.589442 1.944709 2.470069 3.275987 4.573184 7.143498
2025-10-26 1.284459 1.555183 1.915041 2.453887 3.295014 4.683128 7.548175
2025-11-02 1.251532 1.522708 1.886407 2.437492 3.312191 4.791268 7.971559
2025-11-09 1.218044 1.488206 1.853367 2.412422 3.312944 4.869319 8.344559
2025-11-16 1.186325 1.455027 1.820806 2.386182 3.309479 4.938532 8.711818
2025-11-23 1.165283 1.435845 1.807338 2.388267 3.353146 5.100159 9.342288
2025-11-30 1.149083 1.422778 1.801994 2.402382 3.417898 5.309465 10.155525
2025-12-07 1.119750 1.390348 1.767247 2.368286 3.395854 5.342595 10.497499
2025-12-14 1.091341 1.358466 1.732276 2.332264 3.368032 5.360976 10.803839
2025-12-21 1.062280 1.324942 1.693894 2.289188 3.324962 5.343394 10.999969
2025-12-28 1.055860 1.323461 1.702873 2.323062 3.423712 5.639300 12.285978
2026-01-04 1.050201 1.322805 1.712895 2.358893 3.528569 5.963665 13.831397